Expert grains industry analysis and commentary from AEGIC’s Economics and Market Insight Team on a range of big-picture topics that affect Australia’s export grains sector.

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Horizons #58 – Fuzzy logic: identifying tomorrow’s drivers

Horizons #58 – Fuzzy logic: identifying tomorrow’s drivers

Proposing valid, long term grain consumption scenarios – as required by players in the Australian grains industry – requires a different approach and tools to short-term forecasts, some of which are slightly fuzzy and challenging for us data driven analysts.

Horizons #57 – The pie is getting bigger: why grain market growth rates matter

Horizons #57 – The pie is getting bigger: why grain market growth rates matter

Australia continues to increase its production and export of wheat; Australia’s principal grain. However, growth rates in the global export of other grains outstrip that of wheat. This is causing the pie of international traded grains to grow, with Australian wheat’s share of that pie gradually shrinking; even though wheat production in Australia remains profitable.

Horizons #56 – Dorothea Mackellar is still right!

Horizons #56 – Dorothea Mackellar is still right!

Australia’s climate remains highly variable, challenging agricultural production and its related sectors. Yet despite Australia being a global leader in volatility of agricultural production, farmers and scientists are consistently delivering improvements to ensure farming remains profitable.

Horizons #55 – Niche markets: pros and cons

Horizons #55 – Niche markets: pros and cons

Loss of a major grain market like China’s barley market can trigger calls for greater market diversification and more niche markets. However, developing niche markets has pros and cons. Developing niche markets usually requires careful effort.

Horizons #51 – The Lucky Country

Horizons #51 – The Lucky Country

Australian grain farmers can count themselves fortunate. The economic and climatic conditions in a 2020 world affected by COVID, as luck may have it, have actually favoured Australian grain farmers. Yet again, Australian grain farmers can say they live in the Lucky Country.

Horizons #50 – The Rise of the Middle Class

Horizons #50 – The Rise of the Middle Class

A huge spatial change in the global distribution of middle class incomes is underway. By 2030 five countries will be the source of over half of the world’s middle class. Four of those countries are geographically close to Australia; and its grain producers.

Horizons #48 – Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley – Part Two

Horizons #48 – Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley – Part Two

In Part One of this two-part series I explained some of the key factors underpinning Saudi Arabia’s long history of using barley for animal feed. Historically speaking, Australian barley has long dominated this market, however, due to a number of reasons the status-quo has recently been upended, effectively ending Australia’s dominance of the Saudi market for barley.

Horizons #47- Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley (Part One)

Horizons #47- Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley (Part One)

The primary driver behind Saudi Arabia’s position as the largest global importer of feed barley, and importantly, as a key historical market for Australian barley exports, has been the Kingdom’s Bedouin tribes, who have long had a passion for barley as an animal feed.  

Horizons #44 – An old truth, rediscovered…

Horizons #44 – An old truth, rediscovered…

When you start citing a paper first published in 1941 and tell your colleagues why that paper still has relevance today, then don’t take umbrage if your colleagues start saying: Kingwell, you’re really showing your age!

40 – Wheat yield trends across Australia

40 – Wheat yield trends across Australia

by Professor Ross Kingwell - AEGIC Chief Economist. Key points: In a drying and warming climate across most grain-growing regions of Australia, wheat yields continue to increase. The best endeavours...

38 – Australian grain flows towards 2030

38 – Australian grain flows towards 2030

by Professor Ross Kingwell - AEGIC Chief Economist. Although a return to business-as-usual conditions in Australia’s grains industry is possible towards 2030, the industry should also consider the...

36 – Costs of uncertain supply

36 – Costs of uncertain supply

Grain Expectations - Volume 1: You open the door into your favourite bookshop and see the first instalment of a series you’ve been waiting for. You hand over a $50 note (for the hard cover edition...