Predicted shire-level wheat yield maps for 2015

Friday 10 July, 2015

Shire wheat yield rankings for Australia are generally quite positive after favourable autumn rains and early sowing opportunities set the crop up with a good start.

Above average rainfall in June in New South Wales and south-west Queensland have provided the crop with a good buffer of soil moisture for an expected dry finish from strengthening El Niño conditions.

Compared to the same time last year there is a similarity in the spatial pattern of yield rankings. However, yield rankings are generally more positive in Queensland, New South Wales and the Esperance Shire in Western Australia.

Yield rankings are lower this year over most of Victoria and the southern and western areas of South Australia.

With much of Western Australia’s growing season rainfall coming in winter, yield rankings are expected to fall further in this state as little rainfall is forecast for the next fortnight. Reasonable rains over south-eastern Australia in the next fortnight will keep the status quo for the short-term.

Moderate strength El Niño conditions are now in place in the Pacific Ocean and this increases the chances of a dry finish for the rest of the season.