Expert grains industry analysis and commentary from AEGIC’s Economics and Market Insight Team on a range of big-picture topics that affect Australia’s export grains sector.

Subscribe to the mailing list

Horizons #50 – The Rise of the Middle Class

Horizons #50 – The Rise of the Middle Class

A huge spatial change in the global distribution of middle class incomes is underway. By 2030 five countries will be the source of over half of the world’s middle class. Four of those countries are geographically close to Australia; and its grain producers.

Horizons #48 – Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley – Part Two

Horizons #48 – Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley – Part Two

In Part One of this two-part series I explained some of the key factors underpinning Saudi Arabia’s long history of using barley for animal feed. Historically speaking, Australian barley has long dominated this market, however, due to a number of reasons the status-quo has recently been upended, effectively ending Australia’s dominance of the Saudi market for barley.

Horizons #47- Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley (Part One)

Horizons #47- Saudi Arabia’s love affair with barley (Part One)

The primary driver behind Saudi Arabia’s position as the largest global importer of feed barley, and importantly, as a key historical market for Australian barley exports, has been the Kingdom’s Bedouin tribes, who have long had a passion for barley as an animal feed.  

Horizons #44 – An old truth, rediscovered…

Horizons #44 – An old truth, rediscovered…

When you start citing a paper first published in 1941 and tell your colleagues why that paper still has relevance today, then don’t take umbrage if your colleagues start saying: Kingwell, you’re really showing your age!

Horizons #43 – Slip sliding away ― a wake-up call?

Horizons #43 – Slip sliding away ― a wake-up call?

In October 2019 the USDA released its latest update of agricultural productivity performance for over 175 countries. In most countries, Australia included, the focus of many conversations and actions is how best to manage the spread of COVID-19 infections. However, rather than add to the media maelstrom surrounding COVID-19, AEGIC wants its stakeholders and blog readers to lift their gaze beyond the immediate. We want our blogs to focus on longer term issues that will fashion grain market opportunities and affect the nature and future profitability of Australia’s grains industry.

40 – Wheat yield trends across Australia

40 – Wheat yield trends across Australia

by Professor Ross Kingwell - AEGIC Chief Economist. Key points: In a drying and warming climate across most grain-growing regions of Australia, wheat yields continue to increase. The best endeavours...

38 – Australian grain flows towards 2030

38 – Australian grain flows towards 2030

by Professor Ross Kingwell - AEGIC Chief Economist. Although a return to business-as-usual conditions in Australia’s grains industry is possible towards 2030, the industry should also consider the...

36 – Costs of uncertain supply

36 – Costs of uncertain supply

Grain Expectations - Volume 1: You open the door into your favourite bookshop and see the first instalment of a series you’ve been waiting for. You hand over a $50 note (for the hard cover edition...

34 – Butterflies and Pigs?

34 – Butterflies and Pigs?

In popular culture, the butterfly effect is where a very small change in one place can lead to a large change elsewhere. It’s a domino effect where an initial small event triggers a cascade of...

32 – Follow the mouths? ― just head to the coast!

32 – Follow the mouths? ― just head to the coast!

AEGIC’s very first blog (see https://www.aegic.org.au/follow-the-mouths/) suggested that if we want to understand the nature of future overseas grain demand, a good starting point is to “follow the...

31 – The Meat in our Sandwich

31 – The Meat in our Sandwich

We’re told it’s Australian to eat lamb! We’re also told to get some pork on our fork. But then the vegans among us decry any consumption of animals. What’s happening to us as a nation? Is our meat...

29 – Wheat Price Variability – A View From the West

29 – Wheat Price Variability – A View From the West

by Chris Carter & Ross Kingwell. When grain traders say “It’s all about theS&D“, they’re talking about known and projected supply and demand of grain. It’s the interaction between the forces...

25 – Near neighbours…..but very different diets

25 – Near neighbours…..but very different diets

by Professor Ross Kingwell - AEGIC Chief Economist. Perth is closer to Bali than to Melbourne or Sydney. Although geographically very close to Australia, Indonesians, as near neighbours, have very...

24 – The times are a changin’

24 – The times are a changin’

Paul Meibusch, Managing Director - Colere Group Dr Jorge Mayer, Principal Associate - Colere Group Dr Richard Williams, Senior Associate - Colere Group Evolution is a fact of life and trade. What...